TIME’s Bobby Ghosh files this post:
The website of the radical imam who may have advised Maj.louis vuitton handbags for sale Nidal Hasan has been shut down. Anwar Al-Awlaki??s site no longer has anti-West, pro-Al-Qaeda messages. In its place is a generic message: ??What you need, when you need it,?? and an offer to sell the domain name anwar-alawlaki.com.louis vuitton outlet online
Just yesterday, the site prominently displayed a piece by Awlaki praising Maj. Hasan as a ??hero,?? and exhorting other Muslims in the U.S. military to follow in his footsteps.cheap gucci belts
Counterterrorism experts say Awlaki ran a sophisticated online operation, targeting a Western audience: his essays and preachings were published in English. The imam, born in New Mexico, is based in Sana??a, the capital of Yemen. But in 2001, he was imam at a mosque in Falls Church, near Washington; Maj. Hasan may have been one of his congregants.louis vuitton handbags for sale Reports today suggest Maj. Hasan wrote several e-mails to Awlaki in late 2008, and received some replies; the details of these messages have not been made public.
The FBI has not yet responded to queries about Awlaki or his site.
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2013年11月21日星期四
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Few people have studied the effects of public opinion on health policy as extensively as Robert Blendon at the Harvard School of Public Health.replica chanel shoes In this post at Kaiser Health News, Blendon tells us that public support for health reform leaves little margin at the moment:
When Medicare was enacted in 1965, 62 percent of the public supported its passage. When the ill-fated Clinton health plan did not pass the House in 1994, support was between 39 percent and 43 percent. In recent polls, public ratings of the congressional and Obama health reform proposals are much closer to those for the Clinton plan than for Medicare. Support for enactment in recent polls ranges from 34 percent to 49 percent with the most recent suggesting growing public opposition since the summer.fake chanel shoes This is the case even though many of the policy elements of the current House legislation are popular with the public, such as requiring insurers to cover people with pre-existing conditions, and the presence of a public option offered as a competitor to private health plans.
Blendon suggests what questions to watch, and who is likely to be shaping the public’s perception of health reform in the crucial weeks ahead:
…polls show countervailing concerns about the congressional plans. These involve the potential impact of the bills on Americans?? health costs and affordability, their taxes, the extent of government interference in their health care decisions, and worries that health care for those receiving Medicare will deteriorate. Regardless of public enthusiasm for health reform as a principle, and support for many policy elements in the House bill itself, most Americans do not see their healthcare situation as getting better if this legislation is signed into law, and some see their situation as getting worse.replica chanel shoes
In the weeks ahead, Americans are unlikely to read the 2000-page House bill. Rather, they will form their judgment about the final legislation based on others?? assessments. They will rely on those whom they trust as intermediaries to clarify its impact on them. Many of those who will be most influential will not be political figures working in Washington.louis vuitton neverfull Polls suggest they may be leaders of physicians?? and nurses?? groups, seniors’ groups, and organizations advocating for patients with serious illnesses. Also they may rely on the views of major media figures and experts interviewed frequently.
The American public was promised throughout the presidential campaign that major reform if enacted would improve their current health care situation. At the moment they are not convinced that this will be the case.louis vuitton handbags for sale Changing their perceptions may be critical if a bill as extensive as the one enacted by the House is to be passed by both houses of Congress in the next few months.
UPDATE: Here is a more detailed analysis by Blendon from the most recent issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.
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It isn’t often that you get to give a Harvard professor a homework assignment, but that’s what Swampland commenters did yesterday.chanel handbags for sale This came after I posted this Kaiser Health News column by Robert Blendon, the Harvard School of Public Health professor who is one of the leading experts on the intersection of health policy and politics.
Commenters immediately wanted to know where he was getting this stuff. A sampling:
Trifecta55: Where is his poll data coming from KT? Genuinely curious.
Deconstructiva: Agreed! Which polls? Whom got polled, how, etc.fake louis vuitton shoes? e.g., Rasmussen is known to have a conservative slant; others vary.
Stuartzechman: We really need to know what data Robert Blendon is reading, because this seems silly:
Many of those who will be most influential will not be political figures working in Washington.handbags louis vuitton
.
Polls suggest they may be leaders of physicians’ and nurses’ groups, seniors’ groups, and organizations advocating for patients with serious illnesses.
What polls is he talking about, KT?
These seemed like reasonable questions to me, so I put them to Blendon, and this morning he emailed back an answer:
Karen,
Most of the polls mentioned in the Kaiser Health News piece can be found in our recent NEJM article and the Polling Report (links below). There is a “table” near the end of the NEJM article listing the polls we used.louis vuitton handbags for sale For the 2009 polls, if you click on the date of a poll, you’ll be linked to the complete results of that poll.
NEJM article
The Polling Report:
Here is the 1965 Medicare question that was cited:
Harris Survey [February, 1965]
Do you favor or oppose President (Lyndon) Johnson’s program of medical care for the aged under Social Security?
62% Favor
38 Oppose
Methodology: Conducted by Louis Harris & Associates during February, 1965 and based on personal interviews with a national adult sample of 1,250. Sample size is approximate. As reported in The Washington Post.replica chanel shoes[USHARRIS.030865.R1]
Data provided by The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut.
Robert Blendon
Much appreciated, Professor Blendon.gucci outlet online
UPDATE: Pollster.com??s Mark Blumenthal also talked to Blendon, and reports:
He points to the Gallup result showing 26% of adults who say the health care bill will ??make your own health care situation better,?? 36% who say it will make it worse and 31% who think it will not make much difference. ??In the absence of not having a fixed view of what this [reform bill] is and how it will work out for me,?? he said, Americans are ??more susceptible to advertising.??
In the same context, Americans are also watching the news coverage focused on the legislative process and ??getting more scared.fake chanel shoes?? He said he watched the cable news coverage following passage of the bill on Saturday night and saw ??not a word telling you why you should care if the thing passes.??
Blendon still believes, as he and Benson argue in NEJM, that ??public opinion is still fluid on the key question about the impact of the legislation.?? Again, the percentage that say they will be worse off still falls far below a majority, and Gallup has tracked in increase in the initial ??not sure?? response (from 22% to 33%) over the last month. Proponents of health care, Blendon argues, must invest time telling seniors and others who stand to benefit ??how they will be better off??hat??s the thing they have to do to turn this around.gucci handbag for sale
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There were no camera permitted for Barack Obama’s meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu ?last night.handbags louis vuitton There were no reporters, no questions. All there was was this Statement:
“The President and Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed a number of issues in the U.S.-Israel bilateral relationship.fake chanel shoes The President reaffirmed our strong commitment to Israel??s security, and discussed security cooperation on a range of issues. The President and Prime Minister also discussed Iran and how to move forward on Middle East peace.”
This is extraordinary. I can’t remember a presidential bilateral meeting without a photo in recent memory.louis vuitton replica And the chilly tone of the official readout…I’d guess that this is an indication that the President’s Middle East Peace Initiative isn’t going so well.
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2013年11月20日星期三
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Two more Americans were killed today in Afghanistan–in Zhari district, just outside Kandahar, a place I know well, having embedded twice with U.handbags louis vuittonS. units there. This has become business as usual in Afghanistan, especially since U.S.chanel outlet troops accidentally burned some Qurans a few weeks ago. It is, of course, infuriating. And it raises a larger question: why are we still hanging around there, now that Osama bin Laden is dead and Al Qaeda pretty much obliterated? Fareed Zakaria gets it right in this column today.
We have two remaining national interests in Afghanistan.chanel outlet The first is the terrorist breeding ground across the Pakistani border. The second is a moral commitment to prevent the Taliban from retaking the entire country. I suspect that the latter is easier to handle than the former: As Zakaria notes, the Afghan National Army is, essentially, the old Northern Alliance on steroids. We are the steroids.ugg boots outlet And while I’m not sure that a continuing investment of $12 billion a year for the ANA is feasible, we can certainly stay involved on some level of funding and training–and it’s a pretty safe bet that the non-Pashtuns who make up 90% of the ANA will be more than happy to continue their centuries-long fight against the Pashtuns, and prevent the Taliban from retaking Kabul. (It would be nice if Pakistan stopped funding the Taliban, but that seems a remote possibility at the moment.) Aside from this military support, we should have as little as possible to do with the corrupt and incompetent Karzai government.
(MORE:?Crunch Time for Defense Authorization and Military Detention)
The more difficult goal is to keep monitoring, and attacking, the terrorist training bases in the Afghan-Pakistan borderlands.cheap gucci belts It would be nice if we could keep a presence at Kandahar Air Field, and run drones and special operations from there. But that may no longer be possible in the long term, either. I’m not sure of the logistics, but this mission might be undertaken, in a more limited way, from our naval presence in the Indian Ocean.
In the end, our interests in this region have everything to do with the deadly rivalry between India and Pakistan.louis vuitton speedyWe’ve made offer after offer to the Pakistanis to keep Afghanistan a neutral buffer zone, free from Indian interference, if Pakistan stopped funding the Taliban. That hasn’t worked, to say the least. Pakistani-funded terrorists continue to kill American troops on a near-daily basis. The Pakistanis should now understand that they’ve left us no choice but to ask India, Russia and–as Zakaria notes–Iran (tacitly) to help fund the ANA and keep the Taliban boxed in the south and east of the country.fake gucci shoes
(MORE: Tipping Point?)
In sum, we should begin a steady withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan as quickly as possible. There is nothing more that a large NATO troop presence can accomplish there. The Pakistanis should understand that the consequences of our withdrawal will probably include a closer US-India relationship. This is likely to heighten tensions in the region, but it has been made necessary by Pakistan’s support for the Taliban.louis vuitton backpack for sale We should still, however, work to encourage, and perhaps broker, the larger deal between India and Pakistan that is necessary to bring real peace to the region.
We have done what we set out to do in Afghanistan. We’ve destroyed al-Qaeda and killed bin Laden. Both Presidents Bush and Obama pursued this goal inefficiently–it was a special ops job from the start–and we should have learned a valuable lesson after a decade of bloodshed: that the era of massive neo-colonialist occupations of hostile lands is over.louis vuitton belts
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Andrew Breitbart’s last big appearance in Washington took place a few weeks ago, outside a Marriott hotel where conservative activists had gathered.chanel outlet Protesters from the local Occupy movement were laying siege in the parking lot, and Breitbart started to scream at them. “Behave yourself,” he began, before moving on to more incendiary language. “You are freaks and animals … Stop raping the people, you freaks. You filthy freaks.ugg boots outlet You filthy, filthy, filthy raping, murdering freaks.”
No one else joined in. But Breitbart wasn’t really looking to lead a counterprotest. He was trying to seize the spotlight, and he did it quite well.handbags louis vuitton More outrageous, noisy and defiant than anyone around him, he was impossible to ignore. But now his showmanship has come to an end. Breitbart, 43, died on March 1 in California of natural causes, according to his website, Big Government.
(MORE: Occupy the Regulatory Open Comment Period!)
Eras of national tumult are particularly good at creating characters like Breitbart.louis vuitton shoes replica He was not the first to find fame and fortune by recasting politics as a verbal blood sport. Commentators like Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and Bill Maher had been making a mint calling people names for years before him. But Breitbart was the first to do it so successfully with the Internet as his primary medium, and with original, sometimes misleading muckraking as his primary technique. And in that, he leaves behind a generation of would-be ideological warriors and partisans who will follow in his footsteps.fake gucci shoes
What?Breitbart did wasn’t only journalism. It also wasn’t only entertainment. And it wasn’t only combat. In his furious rants and explosive expos辿s, he pushed the bounds of what could be considered advocacy for a new information age.fake chanel shoes His foes were not just wrong. They were “the lowest life form I have ever seen.” He was not just speaking truth to power. He was trying to obliterate entire power structures.loui vuitton
Breitbart’s drive kept him in the headlines. He passed around explicit photos that had been taken by former Democratic Representative Anthony Weiner, though Breitbart says he never intended them to be published. He publicized a hidden-camera sting on the long troubled community organization ACORN that showed, at minimum, poor judgment by low-level staff and eventually contributed to the group’s demise. He released part of a speech given by Shirley Sherrod, a Department of Agriculture employee who was fired as a result of the misleadingly edited footage, only to be invited back to the agency once the full text of her speech was publicized.louis vuitton handbags for sale
(PHOTOS:?Occupy Protesters March on Manhattan)
“I love fighting back,” he wrote in a new conclusion to his book Righteous Indignation, which his website has posted as an ad hoc epitaph. “I love finding allies, and ?? famously ?? I enjoy making enemies.” He put it to TIME another way in 2010: “The second I realized I liked being hated more than I liked being liked ?? that’s when the game began.” With such a clear self-assessment, he was hard to hate.replica louis vuitton
Breitbart’s death was an unexpected ending for a middle-class kid from the Los Angeles suburbs who learned the news business from Internet-tabloid purveyor Matt Drudge and partnered with Arianna Huffington to start the Huffington Post before heading off on his own path.
(MORE:?Can Occupy Wall Street Be a Tea Party for the Left?)
Ironically, his final public act was an apology. On Wednesday night, he got into a squabble with a Louisiana blogger. Breitbart had called the blogger a “putz.louis vuitton belts” Then he reconsidered. “I called you a putz cause I thought you were being intentionally disingenuous. If not I apologize,” Breitbart wrote in a tweet, capping a colorful career with two most unlikely final words.
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In a 51-48 vote on Thursday, the Senate rejected a Republican amendment that would have allowed any employer to deny medical coverage for services it objected to on religious grounds.louis vuitton replica Drawn up in the wake of the Obama Administration’s decision to mandate contraception coverage at Catholic universities and hospitals, the amendment, championed by Roy Blunt of Missouri, never had much of a chance of getting through a Democratic Senate or Obama White House. But the issue of religious freedom, as most Republicans tell it, and women’s health coverage, according to most Democrats, cannot be easily tabled by a procedural vote. It has already hijacked some of the most high-profile political contests of the cycle. And there’s no reason to think it won’t continue to do so.louis vuitton replica
Of the three Democrats who voted in favor of the Blunt Amendment, two face tough re-election contests in socially conservative states this year. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey joined retiring Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson in support of the measure, lending themselves the appearance of independence from President Obama that’s fodder for campaign advertising as Election Day draws near.
(MORE: Conflict Over Obama’s Contraception Rule Intensifies)
The only Republican to break from her party was Maine’s Olympia Snowe, newly freed from partisan restraints by her retirement announcement. But other GOPers who voted for it won’t soon move on ?? at least voluntarily.replica louis vuitton Massachusetts’ Scott Brown is already embroiled in a fight with his likely Democratic opponent Elizabeth Warren on the issue. They traded radio ads last week and both claim their respective positions as a political winner.
Brown is wielding the Blunt amendment in an appeal to Catholic voters, even invoking the name of Massachusetts’ most famous Catholic politician. ??I??m concerned about a new federal mandate forcing religious organizations to offer insurance coverage for practices that go against the teachings of their church.fake louis vuitton Such a requirement flies in the face of our basic American values of religious tolerance,” Brown said in the ad. “Like Ted Kennedy before me, I support a conscience exemption in health care for Catholics and other people of faith.” Warren has cast Blunt as an attempt to interject employers between women and their health care providers. “This new law threatens women??s access to contraception, mammograms, even maternity care.louis vuitton replica It??s just plain wrong,” she said. (Clearly, it’s not actually a law.)
(MORE:?Rick Santorum Wants to Fight ??The Dangers Of Contraception??)
But the fight is much bigger than the Senate. Mitt Romney got sucked into the maelstrom on Wednesday when he answered a poorly worded question about the amendment, with which he seemed unfamiliar.louis vuitton handbags for sale “I??m not for the bill, but look, the idea of presidential candidates getting into questions about contraception within a relationship between a man and a women, husband and wife, I??m not going there,” he said. He was going there though, and clarified his remarks shortly thereafter, expressing his support for the Blunt amendment. Undeterred, Rick Santorum is still hammering Romney for his momentary waffle–”I tell you, if I was asked a question like that, my gut reaction would be always…you stand for the first amendment,” he said Thursday–and Obama will likely attack whomever wins the nomination from the other side of the issue.
In the savage endurance contest that is this year’s election–a topic David Von Drehle explores in the new issue of TIME–nothing is quickly or painlessly put aside, Senate vote or not.louis vuitton belts
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The mama grizzlies at Sarah Palin’s political-action committee have a well-produced video up today that aims to do some damage control before the release of a not-so-favorable HBO dramatization of her role in the 2008 presidential campaign, based on a book co-written by TIME’s Mark Halperin.louis vuitton replica
HBO is owned by the same company that signs my paycheck, and I work with Halperin, who consulted on the movie. I lived the 2008 campaign as a reporter following McCain and Palin for TIME, but I have not seen HBO’s rendition of it, so I am unable to comment on its accuracy.
That said, there are some things that jump out in this SarahPAC video. “We know the truth,” the screen announces before providing us favorable contemporaneous commentary on Palin’s performance during the campaign.louis vuitton outlet online “A feisty, strong, tough and straight-talking governor,” says Nicolle Wallace, an adviser to McCain at the time. “A tremendous record of accomplishment, 80% approval rating,” adds top McCain strategist Steve Schmidt in another sound bite.
(MORE: Palin Will Not Seek GOP Nomination)
These are bizarre people to choose as Palin character witnesses. Since the campaign ended, Wallace has gone on the record saying that Palin “hated me from the beginning,” and she has accused Palin of writing a memoir of the campaign “based on fabrications.louis vuitton speedy” Wallace has also revealed that the McCain campaign questioned Palin’s competency after she was nominated as the vice-presidential candidate. “There certainly were discussions ?? not for long, because of the arc the campaign took ?? but certainly there were discussions about whether, if they were to win, it would be appropriate to be sworn in,” Wallace said. A book Wallace recently wrote featured a fictional Vice President with a mental illness, a character Wallace said she based in part on Palin. That’s not all: “Palin vacillated between extraordinary highs on the campaign stage ?? she ignited more enthusiasm than our side had seen at any other point ?? to debilitating lows,” she said.gucci outlet online “She was often withdrawn, uncommunicative and incapable of performing even the most basic tasks required of her job as McCain??s running mate.”
And what about Schmidt? Some of the footage in the SarahPAC video is taken from a postcampaign interview on 60 Minutes Schmidt did for the release of Game Change, the book. The interview did not reflect well on Palin. He said Palin had a reflexive habit of referring to then Senator Joe Biden as “O’Biden.ugg boots outlet” “She was not focused … not engaged,?? Schmidt went on to say of her during the campaign. ??She was not really participating in the prep [for her debate].” Schmidt also said Palin’s running for President in 2012 would be “catastrophic.” “My honest view is that she would not be a winning candidate for the Republican Party,” he said.fake louis vuitton shoes
(MORE: Where Will the Palin Voters Go?)
The critiques of Schmidt and Wallace are heavily echoed in the book that formed the basis for the HBO film. It therefore seems odd that Palin’s supporters would then turn to these same critics to prove “the truth” of Palin’s performance in the 2008 contest. The SarahPAC video is credible only if one doesn’t know the backstory. But then, those ignorant of the backstory are probably the video’s target audience.cheap gucci belts
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2013年11月19日星期二
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For the better part of two years, Mitt Romney has been relentless.fake ugg boots “Four years ago, candidate Obama came to Nevada, promising to help,” he said in his victory speech after the Nevada caucuses on Saturday night. “Today, Nevada unemployment is over 12%, home values have plummeted, and Nevada’s foreclosure rate is the highest in the nation … Well, Mr. President, Nevada has had enough of your kind of help.” Swap out Nevada for another state, and perhaps some different metrics, and you get what Romney has told countless Republican crowds across the country.handbags louis vuitton The impetus for his candidacy is simple: the economy is bad, so is Obama, and Mitt Romney is the guy with solutions to both problems. So what happens if the economy gets better?
The question’s not so far-fetched. Personal income is up, joblessness is down. The economy is far from a full recovery ???prerecession unemployment levels of 4% or 5% could be a decade away or more ???but things are getting better, faster; in presidential elections the direction that the economy is heading is much more important than the numbers themselves.fake louis vuitton And despite Romney’s superhuman adherence to his Obama-as-economic-bugbear narrative, the possibility of sunnier days has not escaped the Republican candidate. In fact, it was once a given for his campaign.
(MORE: Romney Rolls in Nevada)
“I think President Obama will be difficult to beat in 2012, because I think an incumbent has extraordinary advantages,” Romney said in 2010. “He will do everything he can to get the economy going back again, and most likely ???at least in my view ???the economy will be coming back.louis vuitton speedy” He continued: “Recessions do end. The economy recovers. It always has. It always will.chanel outlet”
This early stage of Romney’s proto-campaign was marked by a focus not on the domestic economy but on foreign policy. No Apology, the title of Romney’s pre-presidential memoir, wasn’t just an attempt to shrug off charges of political cravenness that dogged him in 2008. The subtitle read The Case for American Greatness, and the book fronted an attack on Obama’s allegedly weak (and fictionally apologetic) foreign policy. As the recovery stalled and Obama kept crossing off bigger and bigger names from the al-Qaeda wanted list, this path became less tenable, and Romney, who had never abandoned an economic message altogether, began to shift more of his time and energy into his domestic argument.louis vuitton shoes replica
(PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week)
So, if the pace of the recovery quickens, will Romney return to his crusade against Obama’s foreign policy? It doesn’t seem too likely. According to a new Washington Post/ABC News survey, international affairs and terrorism are two areas in which significantly more Americans trust Obama than Romney.
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With economic confidence perking up a bit, and Obama’s poll numbers following, Republicans are beginning to ponder the possibility of an election season in which voters don’t feel the country is plunging toward ruin.replica louis vuitton The conundrum then, as I wrote a little while back, is what Republican candidates can talk about in a rosier world.
My conclusion last week: few good options, and in the end, “Romney will probably continue to talk about the economy no matter what happens. His chances, and Obama??s, hinge more on the realities of the recovery than any campaign narrative. If the economy falters, Romney??s message and his candidacy will have a very good chance to break through.louis vuitton shoes replica If the recovery roars to life, they probably won??t.”
AEI’s James?Pethokoukis takes a crack at this question today, offering five ways “Republicans can win even if the economy keeps improving.” And they’re all pretty much versions of the same economic messages conservatives have been discussing for months. (In Pethokoukis’ words this list is “more targeted and focused.louis vuitton outlet online”)
His first idea: The economy is “better but not nearly good enough.” This is pretty self explanatory. The U.S.louis vuitton speedy isn’t on track to return to normal employment for another decade, etc. etc., and in absolute terms, the recovery would have to be downright miraculous to drag the economy entirely out of the dumpster by November. The problem with this line of argument is that voters historically don’t care about absolutes.louis vuitton handbags for sale They care whether things are moving in the right direction, and that’s what we’re beginning to see, regardless of the long climb ahead out of Great Recession Valley.
Point two: “Obama??s policies don??t deserve much, if any, credit for the weakest economic recovery since the Great Depression,” also known as “the stimulus didn’t work” or “recoveries happen on their own” argument. The factual accuracy of this claim aside, its political effectiveness is dubious. Voters tend to credit incumbents when things go well and blame them when things go wrong.fake louis vuitton shoes If the economy were tanking, Obama would use the classic counter-factual argument–what I did worked to a degree and this mess would be a lot worse if I hadn’t acted–but it too would count for very little.
“Too much debt!” is Pethokoukis’ next idea. The problem here is more straightforward: Voters just don’t care about this as much as they do about the economy. There is also absolutely nothing new about this argument; Republicans have been making it consistently since before the midterms.louis vuitton shoes replica Next: Health care costs, entitlement spending, big banks and the tax code are out of control. This was all the case before Obama took office and, while the President and Republicans can argue about how much progress he made on these issues, the whole thing probably just falls under the broader category of whether Obama policies worked or not (see point two) for most voters.
Finally?Pethokoukis hits on “crony capitalism,” the idea that Obama is picking winners in the private sector with the whiff of corruption all around him. Even when you ignore the hyperbolic framing–comparing Washington’s loan guarantees to Beijing’s planned economy is outlandish–this probably hits closest to home.fake gucci shoes Obama’s first re-election ad, after all, was essentially a defense of Solyndra. But it’s a fairly narrow issue and one that?Pethokoukis brings back to “economic freedom.”
Yes, it all comes back to the generic economic argument. Which is precisely the reason it’s hard to picture this election hinging on anything else.louis vuitton handbags for sale
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Only six weeks ago, Rick Santorum was basking in the aftermath of his Iowa triumph.chanel outlet Pundits and voters alike wondered how they missed a force hiding in plain sight. Santorum talked about taking his one-state campaign national, and there was reason to suspect he had a shot at riding the surge that began in the Hawkeye State cornfields. Of all the candidates jockeying to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, Santorum ???a devout Catholic with a spotless personal life, a blue collar biography, a keen intellect and deeply conservative social views ???has perhaps the best set of credentials for a Republican primary. “He didn’t go to Harvard, Yale or Princeton,” says Foster Friess, the cowboy-hatted Wyoming millionaire whose seed money sustained Santorum’s super PAC through lean times.louis vuitton backpack for sale “People like him, believe he’s honest and share his core values about what makes America great.”
Friess spent time with Santorum in Iowa, where he was winning. But after that, the candidate faded in a blink. Santorum slumped to fifth place in New Hampshire, beset by hecklers, hostile crowds and a muddled message that too often veered from the economic populism that endears him to working-class Republicans.handbags louis vuitton He was a nonfactor in South Carolina, and largely skipped subsequent contests in Florida and Nevada to regroup and focus on small, low-turnout contests in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado. None of those contests carried any bound delegates. But momentum is a force independent of convention math. Santorum’s three-state sweep has cranked his bandwagon back into gear, propelling him into the lead in national polls and re-establishing him as the primary foil for Mitt Romney.louis vuitton handbags for sale
Given the vagaries of Republican voters, we should know better than to make too much of these numbers, which are liable to erode once Romney’s forces begin reminding Republican voters of Santorum’s conservative apostasies during his tenure on Capitol Hill. But for now, as I write in the new issue of TIME, Santorum looks to be the last man standing between the Republican base and a Romney coronation.
To sustain the momentum, Santorum’s campaign is scrambling to devise a strategy that allows it to compete with Romney’s deep-pocketed, well-oiled machine as 10 states head to the polls on Super Tuesday, March 6.???We learned a lot from trying to ramp up quickly after Iowa,?? says Mike Biundo, Santorum??s campaign manager.louis vuitton belts ??We didn??t have the bandwidth at that point to run the kind of campaign we needed.?? The campaign is weighing how to spread its cash across the multiple states and is likely to target conservative states ???including Georgia, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Idaho and Tennessee ???where it hopes to avoid costly air wars.
The plum prize, of course, is the Michigan primary on Feb. 28.chanel outlet A victory in Romney’s home state would be an embarrassment for Romney and would dispel what aura of inevitability the front runner has left. Santorum’s team, which is leery of the polls showing their man up by around 10 points, is cautious about investing heavily in a state where he could get trounced. But even the specter of an upset has spooked the former Massachusetts governor.???Romney must be having nightmares,?? says Bill Ballenger, a Michigan political analyst.louis vuitton backpack for sale ??I??ve never seen other candidates do well with so little as Romney??s opponents. And it??s simply because they’re not Romney. If he loses Michigan, it may be the final impetus that would get the Karl Roves and the super PACs together to say, ‘Enough of this.’ It would be devastating.louis vuitton handbags for sale??
Read more about Santorum in the new issue of TIME, now available online to subscribers and on newsstands Friday.
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Mike Murphy, who advised Mitt back in his Massachusetts days, offers some counsel in the pages of TIME:
He should drop the biography-based message.louis vuitton handbags for sale Nobody wants a well-intentioned accountant in charge when the house is on fire. For the first time in his professional life, Romney needs to stop thinking and calculating and get stupid. The race now is about his heart. What is his motive? Why is he so famously hardworking? Who does he worry about when he wakes up first thing in the morning? Voters may respect his success, but they do not think they truly know him.louis vuitton shoes replica And while the cerebral Romney may recoil at the psychological striptease this requires, it is how people pick their President in modern America. Romney must fill that vacuum or else others will maliciously fill it for him.
Subscribers can read the whole column here and it’ll be on newsstands Friday.
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2013年11月13日星期三
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Barack Obama never mentioned Mitt Romney when he spoke at the United Auto Workers Convention on Tuesday.chanel handbags for sale But when Obama said “folks,” he meant Romney. When Obama said “these politicians,” he meant Romney. And when Obama said “some politicians,” he meant Romney.
It’s halftime in the 2012 election.louis vuitton handbags for sale The remaining Republican candidates are off squabbling with each other about who is more conservative. This may take them a while. In the meantime, President Obama is dropping the pretense that there is something to distinguish his campaign duties (fundraisers, online messages to supporters) and his presidential duties (addresses to large crowds, like the UAW). But not completely.handbags louis vuitton He still won’t say Mitt Romney’s name.
(MORE:?The Republican Race Looks Murky, in Michigan and Beyond)
Instead, he refers to Romney in the third person plural, as “folks,” or “politicians.” “It’s been funny to watch some of these politicians completely rewrite history now that you’re back on your feet,” Obama told the UAW gathering. “These are folks who said if we went forward with out plan to rescue Detroit, ‘You can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye.chanel handbags for sale’” The only folks who wrote that line was Mitt Romney.
“Some politicians said we should, ‘Let Detroit go bankrupt,’” Obama said at another point in his speech to the UAW. The only “some politicians” was Romney, and he didn’t coin it. A headline writer at the New York Times topped an opinion piece that Romney wrote with that line.louis vuitton handbags for sale But never mind. You get the point.
If Romney ever does get a chance to return to his general election message, he will find that Obama has had plenty of time over the last several weeks to hone his own. As Adam Sorensen pointed out to me, there are lots of clear rebuttals to Romney’s one liners embedded in Tuesday’s speech.replica louis vuitton When Romney says that he believes in America or that Obama apologized for America, the President will retort, Romney gave up on an American industry. “I placed my bet on American workers,” Obama said Tuesday, again. “And I’d make that same bet again any day of the week.”
(PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.cheap gucci belts 18-24)
When Romney says he is for restoring American greatness, Obama will say the country should not look back. “We will not settle for a country where a few people do really well, and everyone else struggles to get by,” Obama said Tuesday. “We will not go back to an economy weakened by outsourcing, bad debt and phony profits.”
Those are the battle lines.chanel handbags for sale At this point, no one is quite sure when the battle will begin once again.
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When the history of Facebook-enabled activism is written, the backlash against the Susan G.loui vuitton Komen foundation??s decision to end grants to Planned Parenthood clinics will fall somewhere behind the Arab Spring and ahead of the effort to get Betty White to host Saturday Night Live. The Betty White campaign took months; the Komen foundation reversed its stand after just four days of scathing Facebook updates.
This is what social-media anger looks like: a pink graphic with the words ??Still Standing with Planned Parenthood?? and an arrow pointing to the user??s photo, posted with the righteous force of a click.
(MORE: Planned Parenthood Credits Social Media for Publicizing Its Position Against Komen Foundation)
By the end of last week, Komen had decided that Planned Parenthood could apply for future grants to provide breast-cancer detection and education.chanel outlet But having raised in a matter of days five times the $600,000 that it stood to lose in grant funds, Planned Parenthood isn??t going to need Komen??s money anytime soon.
The backlash against Komen, and its subsequent reversal, wasn’t a given. While the Komen episode generated an immediate response by Planned Parenthood??s supporters, legislative attacks against the organization last year resulted in barely a social-media peep. When a dozen states proposed banning all funding to the abortion-and-health-care provider ?? and those bans became law in at least five states ?? no one started a Twitter campaign to lobby state legislatures.cheap gucci belts And when a congressional effort to strip Planned Parenthood of federal funds nearly shut down the government, the Facebook group Don??t Let Congress Defund Planned Parenthood attracted a whopping 30 Likes.
Why did Komen??s decision galvanize pro??abortion rights Americans while much more substantial efforts to financially starve Planned Parenthood failed to register? The most obvious answer is that breast cancer is a far less polarizing issue than abortion, or even birth control. Support for abortion rights doesn??t generate the energy it once did in the U.S.louis vuitton outlet online because the women who came of age around the time of the Roe v. Wade decision are past their childbearing years and the women who are now in their reproductive prime have never known a world in which abortion was illegal. In the case of breast cancer, however, those early abortion-rights activists now include many breast-cancer survivors ?? and friends of those who have died from breast cancer. And many of the younger women have watched their mothers and aunts fight the disease.fake uggs
(MORE: Planned Parenthood Responds to Komen Reversal)
MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, who announced last September that she had been diagnosed with breast cancer, was the first journalist to interview Komen founder Nancy Brinker, and Mitchell introduced the segment by noting that she was ??expressing the anger of a lot of people,?? including herself. As Mitchell later told Politico, ??It??s hard to explain when you??ve lost someone to breast cancer and then run with that person??s name on your T-shirt, how determined you are, holding back your tears.?? Mitchell has been involved with Komen for years and said she remembered ??as a very young woman running, having just lost my closest friend, and knowing that I was running that race for her. It kept me going.ugg boots outlet??
However, the reaction went beyond the instinct to protect more women from breast cancer. The outpouring of support for Planned Parenthood was not as visceral as the anger at the Komen foundation. For those who have donated to the group and participated in Race for the Cure and worn pink ribbons or purchased pink-colored anything through Komen??s many sponsors, the decision to revoke grants to Planned Parenthood felt like a betrayal.
Perhaps the closest comparison is when lovers of Chick-fil-A??s fried-chicken sandwiches discovered that the restaurant chain had donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to groups that oppose gay marriage.gucci outlet online As one Komen sponsor told the Washington Post, ??It??s unsettling to think you??re supporting one thing and then it changes.?? Komen supporters thought they had woken up to find that their beloved pink-ribbon standard-bearer had become a conservative antiabortion institution.
The episode also made explicit an argument Planned Parenthood has consistently marshaled as it fought state and federal efforts to deny the organization access to funding for birth control. Its clinics, Planned Parenthood insists, provide women with care that goes beyond reproductive health.louis vuitton belts The headlines announcing that Planned Parenthood was losing grants from the Komen foundation legitimized Planned Parenthood’s role as a health care provider for low-income women.
(MORE: How Will Komen’s Split with Planned Parenthood Affect Women’s Health?)
Conservatives quickly recognized this threat to their efforts to paint Planned Parenthood as ??an abortion factory,?? and they jumped to point out that most Planned Parenthood clinics don??t provide mammograms on-site and instead refer women to outside clinics. In a statement released after Komen backed off its initial decision, Ralph Reed of the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition charged that ??Planned Parenthood put politics ahead of women??s health?? and alleged that it ??does not offer mammography services to women.??
Planned Parenthood clinics are hardly the only Komen grant recipients to serve as a middle (wo)man, offering manual breast exams by nurse practitioners, and then subsidizing the mammograms of women whom they send elsewhere for the procedure.louis vuitton speedy And it takes some contortions to argue that the end result ?? free or highly subsidized breast-cancer detection for women who otherwise might not receive it ?? does not benefit women??s health.
Now that Komen has reversed its position and vowed to continue considering Planned Parenthood clinics for grants, antiabortion activists are crying foul about Planned Parenthood??s ??bullying?? of Komen. Likewise, Planned Parenthood did not hesitate to label Komen??s initial decision the result of pressure from antiabortion groups, despite a lack of evidence for that charge. Both sides in the culture war used the episode to raise funds for their causes and to demonize their opponents.cheap gucci belts But ultimately this showdown didn’t tell us anything about the culture war or abortion. It proved instead that women will rally to the cause of fighting breast cancer. Because there’s still no cure.
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Romney’s victory in Nevada was attended by lackluster turnout.louis vuitton backpack for sale (The count was also a debacle.)
His remaining challenge may be Santorum and the Midwest, not Gingrich and the South.
Gingrich is $600,000 in debt.
The New Yorker profiles the Romney super PAC’s ad man.louis vuitton speedy
Chrysler’s Super Bowl halftime ad featuring Clint Eastwood ran for two minutes at $14 million and could have easily been an Obama re-election spot.
Pete Hoekstra runs an ad depicting an Asian woman on a bicycle in a rice paddy saying “Your economy get very weak” and claims its about China’s education system.
Financial reform and Occupy have rendered Wall St. less potent.gucci outlet online
New York and California get closer to signing on to mortgage fraud settlement.
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I’ve been traveling to the Middle East as a journalist for the past 30 years.louis vuitton speedy During that time, Israel has grown into an ethnically diverse, economically successful country with a strong (internal) tradition of democracy, free speech and the rule of law–a tradition not always extended toward its Palestinian neighbors, especially when Likud governments are in power. And during those same 30 years, governance on the Palestinian side has been an unrelenting disgrace–until recently, when Salam Fayyad, a U.S.-trained economist reformed the government on the West Bank and, with US help, created a tough security force that insisted on the rule of law in the Palestinian territories and was respected by the international community, including the Israelis.louis vuitton handbags for sale
But Fayyad was fired in the new accord between the two main Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas. This is terrible news. It changes everything.The success of Fayyad’s government was one reason why I was not entirely pessimistic about a two-state solution in the Middle East.chanel handbags for sale Israel had always demanded, and deserved, a responsible negotiating partner. Fayyad had created conditions amenable to negotiation; the Israelis responded positively, in a limited way, shutting down checkpoints on the West Bank, but not nearly as positively as they should have–with a moratorium on new settlement construction. His firing has undermined those of us who had hoped for a more positive Israeli response to the Palestinian reforms.
Fayyad was sacked because Hamas didn’t like his security force.replica louis vuitton Needless to say, a police force more amenable to Hamas is likely to be less rigorous when it comes to anti-terrorism, if not downright subversive. The rationale for the Israeli government to respond more favorably toward the Palestinians is thus damaged, perhaps irreparably. The Fayyad government also was the strongest argument for continued US financial support of the Palestinian Authority; the rationale for such funding is now undermined as well. Finally, the stability Fayyad struggled to achieve helped create something of an economic boom, and a new middle class, on the West Bank.louis vuitton belts That progress will be harder to sustain now.
Abba Eban famously said, “The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.” Salam Fayyad was well on the road to refuting that. The fact that Mahmoud Abbas succumbed to Hamas pressure and agreed to sack Fayyad represents a return to dismal business as usual on the Palestinian side.gucci handbag for sale
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